“China: Igihugu gishobora kugena ejo hazaza h’ibiciro bya peteroli ku isi”

Mu gihe isi yari itangiye kwitegura izamuka rikomeye ry’ibiciro bya peteroli kubera intambara ya Iran n’ihungabana ry’itangwa ry’ingufu, hari igihugu kimwe cyagaragaye nk’ikigira uruhare rukomeye mu gutuza isoko: China. Abasesenguzi b’ingufu bavuga ko uko China izitwara bishobora kugira uruhare runini mu kumenya niba ibiciro bya peteroli bizakomeza kuzamuka cyangwa niba bizamanuka mu mezi ari imbere. China ni cyo gihugu cya kabiri ku isi gikoresha peteroli nyinshi nyuma ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika. Kuba yarashoboye kugabanya ikoreshwa rya peteroli no gukoresha ububiko yari yarateguye byafashije kugabanya igitutu ku isoko mpuzamahanga. Uburyo China yafashije gutuza isoko Mu gihe intambara ya Iran yateje impungenge ku itangwa rya peteroli ku isi, hari abahanuraga ko igiciro cya barrel imwe gishobora kugera ku madolari 200. Ariko ibyo ntibyabaye ku rwego rwari rutegerejwe. Impamvu ikomeye yatanzwe n’abasesenguzi ni uko China yari yariteguye mbere. Iki gihugu cyari cyaramaze kubika peteroli nyinshi mu bubiko bwacyo, harimo n’ibikomoka kuri peteroli cyabonye ku biciro biri hasi biturutse ku bacuruzi bo mu bihugu nka Russia na Iran. Igihe ikibazo cyatangiraga gukomera, China yatangiye gukoresha zimwe muri izo stockpiles, bituma kidakenera kwinjira cyane ku isoko mpuzamahanga. Abasesenguzi bavuga ko China yagabanije ibyo itumiza hanze hafi ya barrels miliyoni 3 ku munsi, umubare ugereranywa n’ibyo igihugu nka Japan gikoresha. Imbaraga z’imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi Ikindi kintu cyahinduye ishusho y’isoko ni iterambere rya electric vehicles (EVs) muri China. Uyu munsi, imodoka nshya nyinshi zigurwa muri China ni izikoresha amashanyarazi cyangwa izindi ngufu zisukuye. Ibi byagabanyije icyifuzo cya peteroli, kuko imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi zisimbura izakoreshaga lisansi cyangwa mazutu. Abahanga mu by’ingufu bavuga ko iterambere rya China muri EVs, bateri n’ingufu z’izuba ryabaye nk’umuyoboro wafashije kugabanya umuvuduko w’isoko rya peteroli. Ese ikibazo cya Hormuz nikirangira bizagenda bite? Imwe mu mpamvu zatumye ibiciro bya peteroli bihungabana ni ikibazo kiri ku nzira ya Strait of Hormuz, inzira ikomeye inyuramo igice kinini cya peteroli ikoreshwa ku isi. Niba iyi nzira yongera gukora neza kandi peteroli iva muri Middle East ikongera kugera ku masoko, abasesenguzi batinya ko hashobora kubaho ikibazo gitandukanye: peteroli nyinshi ku isoko kurusha abayikeneye. Ibi bishobora gutuma ibiciro bigabanuka. Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu, International Energy Agency (IEA), cyagaragaje ko umusaruro wa peteroli ushobora kuzarenza icyifuzo cy’abaguzi mu gihe kiri imbere, cyane cyane niba umusaruro wo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati wongera kugenda neza. Ikibazo gisigaye: China izakora iki? Nubwo China yafashije isi kwirinda izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro bya peteroli, ikibazo gikomeye ni ukumenya niba izakomeza kugura peteroli nyinshi cyangwa niba izakomeza kwerekeza ku ngufu zisukuye. Iyo ibiciro bigabanutse, China ishobora kongera kubaka ububiko bwayo bwa peteroli. Ariko niba ikomeza kugabanya ikoreshwa rya peteroli kubera imodoka zikoresha amashanyarazi n’ingufu zisimbura izisanzwe, bishobora guhindura burundu imiterere y’isoko ry’ingufu ku isi. Mu gihe ibihugu byinshi bikomeje gukurikirana intambara ya Iran n’ingaruka zayo, ikigaragara ni uko ejo hazaza h’ibiciro bya peteroli bitazagenwa gusa n’abatanga peteroli, ahubwo n’ibihugu bifite ubushobozi bwo kugena uko isoko rikoreshwa — kandi China iri ku isonga.